Interest rates
The Selic is down 1.25 points, but loan rates fell much less
Since March the central bank has cut the Selic five times, from 15.00% to 13.75%. The average rate charged on loans was 32.26% a year in August, only 0.37 points below February.
The Briefing · Written Oct 4, 2026 · Numbers and charts update with each release
Selic and inflation (IPCA), 12 months
% per year, last four years
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (SGS) and IBGE
The cuts were 0.25 points each, in March, April, June, August and September. In August the Selic was 1.00 point below February; over the same period the average loan rate fell 0.37 points, from 32.63% to 32.26%.
Twelve-month inflation is 4.22%, so the 13.75% Selic sits 9.53 points above it. That is the so-called real rate, calculated here as a simple difference: the higher it is, the more interest weighs on borrowers.
What the number means for you
It is the benchmark rate, now 1.25 points below its peak
The Selic is the reference for loans, cards and fixed income. It stood at 15.00% until March and fell at five meetings in a row.
It is how far the Selic exceeds 12-month inflation
A high real rate makes credit expensive and fixed income attractive. It only falls with more cuts or with inflation rising.
It is the average rate banks charge on loans
In August, per year. Since February it fell 0.37 points, much less than the Selic over the same period.
The next test: what would change the answer
What we do not know yet: whether the next cuts actually reach borrowers. So far loan rates have responded little to the fall in the Selic.
Twelve-month inflation moving back above 4.5%. It would argue for the central bank to pause cuts.
The average loan rate falling below 32%. It would signal that the Selic decline is starting to reach credit.
Defaults rising beyond 5.04%. Banks tend to charge more to offset risk, which would hold back borrowing-rate declines.
Questions readers ask
What is the Selic?
The benchmark interest rate of the Brazilian economy, set by the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). It is the reference for other rates.
What is the real interest rate?
Interest after subtracting inflation. Here we calculate it as the simple difference between the Selic and 12-month IPCA.
Why don't loan rates fall in step with the Selic?
From the data on this page we can only observe that the fall was smaller: 0.37 points in the average loan rate against 1.00 point in the Selic between February and August.
What is the banking spread?
The gap between the rate banks charge customers and what they pay to raise funds. In August it was 11.73 percentage points, below April's 12.57.