Activity
The economy has picked up again, but industry is still a drag
GDP, the size of the economy, grew 2.0% in the second quarter of 2026 from the same period of 2025. It was the first improvement after three quarters stuck at 1.8%.
The Briefing · Written Oct 4, 2026 · Numbers and charts update with each release
GDP, change from the same quarter a year earlier
% per year, by quarter
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
The pace is still well below the 4.1% of the third quarter of 2024. The economy slowed quarter after quarter down to 1.8% and is now showing its first sign of life.
The latest monthly data are mixed. Industrial output in August was 1.2% below August 2025, and July was 0.5% below. Services volume in July was 0.9% above a year earlier.
What the number means for you
The economy produces 2% more than a year ago
That is real growth, after inflation, but at a much slower pace than in 2024 (4.1% in the third quarter).
Industry is producing less than a year ago
August industrial output was below August 2025. High interest rates make credit for investment and durable goods more expensive, which weighs on industry.
Services remain slightly above a year ago
Services are the largest part of the economy. In July their volume was 0.9% above July 2025, a modest gain.
The next test: what would change the answer
What we do not know yet: one better quarter does not confirm a turn. We need to see whether third-quarter industry and services data follow GDP.
Third-quarter GDP above 2.0%. It would be a second rise in a row and would confirm the recovery.
Industrial output turning positive against the previous year. It is now 1.2% below.
Services volume falling below its level of a year ago. It would signal that the slowdown reached the sector that weighs most.
Questions readers ask
What is GDP?
Gross domestic product is the value of everything the economy produces in a period. Its change shows whether the economy is growing or shrinking.
What does GDP 'from the same quarter a year earlier' mean?
It compares the latest quarter with the same quarter of last year, which removes the effect of the seasons.
Why is industry doing worse than services?
The data on this page cannot establish the cause. What the numbers show is that industry produced 1.2% less in August than a year earlier, while services grew 0.9% in July.
How often is this data published?
GDP is published quarterly by IBGE. Industrial output and services volume come out every month, also from IBGE.